Instrumentation unit of Disaster Mitigation of APSDPS is one of the foremost units that were created in 2003 in the original Project that the World Bank initiated in Andhra Pradesh. The unit has achieved admirable precision in predicting cyclones & floods and disseminates information on water levels that is regularly used by other allied government departments. The unit under guidance of the head Mr. Manga Rao has attained national acceptance.

Andhra Pradesh Government established an Early Warning Center (EWC) to forewarn people about cyclones and floods based on mathematical models. The Early Warning Center frame work involves running of weather forecasting models supported by real time acquisition of data on a number of weather related parameters. To facilitate data collection APSDPS has installed 1602 Automated Weather Stations (AWS), 93 river gauges, 5 coastal stations and 76 reservoir level recorders across the state to acquire data on real time basis. The AWS measures 6 weather parameters - Rainfall, Wind Speed, Wind Direction, Atmospheric Pressure, Humidity and Temperature at every one hour interval and transmits it in the form of SMS using GSM technology. Presently, at least one AWS for each mandal is installed. River gauges measures the water level in the river at that particular location and transmits data at hourly interval using satellite technology. This data is being used by various government agencies like Agriculture Department, Disaster Management, Irrigation department, Energy Department etc., for proper planning and implementation of varied government programs and schemes. AWS data is also being used by Agriculture Insurance Company of India for implementation of Weather Based Crop Insurance Scheme (WBCIS) for various crops in the districts.

Mrs.Baddam Shyamala, AEE, APSDPS
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Cyclones & Storm Surge Forecast Unit

The Cyclone and Storm surge unit provides early warnings for cyclone / rainfall forecasts. The unit does real time monitoring of cyclones and also takes up continuous refinement of models for cyclone forecast and their calibration. All relevant information is collected and historical events documented by the unit for future reference. All subjects and information related to cyclones with reference to AP using the data collected from AWS and from outputs generated out of the models for various scenarios are carefully documented by the unit. The unit also prepares cyclone vulnerability atlas for all intensities of cyclones starting from T2.5 to T7.0 covering nine coastal districts using finer GIS spatial data sets and publishes an atlas on cyclone vulnerability. Networking with national and international agencies for exchanging data and developments in areas related to weather forecast is a significant activity of the unit that keeps it on par with many national and international forecasting institutions.

In course of its functioning the unit has tried implementation of alternate models for cyclone forecast, and proposes to implement WRF model at finer resolution in near future. Evolving ensemble type of scheme for enhancing rainfall estimates using NWP forecasts, AWS data, TRMM data etc, statistically downscaled GCM projections using multi-model ensemble from CMIP3/CMIP5 to stations scale on rainfall, temperature and stream flow within Pennar river basin and providing projections of probability distribution of rainfall amounts, wet & dry spells, establishment of flow duration curves and net radiation based on temperature projections in the Pennar catchment from downscaled GCM projections are few of its other activities.

This unit has implemented varied models like the Portable Unified model (PUM) customized for AP by UK Meteorology office, in house developed models cyclone processor that interpolates the cyclone track based on any cyclone advisory, wind enhanced scheme (WES) that interpolates wind and pressure profiles around a temporal location of cyclone, rainfall model that combines the numerical precipitation forecast and the ground observations to forecast possible rainfall for the next 48 hours of time, storm surge model (SSM) that computes possible inundation along east coast while the cyclone crosses coast. The unit has in house also developed a decision support system that uses and converts the outputs from above models to generate event maps at required administrative boundaries using GIS platform. These models can also be used for generating scenarios that can be used for long-term planning activities.

Mrs.Baddam Shyamala, AEE, APSDPS
View Team

Wind Hazard Model

Wind Hazard Model for AP has been conceptualized and developed for AP with the help of IIT Chennai WHM and reads forecasted wind speeds for a cyclonic event as generated by WES to forecast the likely damages to elements at risk. WHM provides forecast on possible damages to 13 elements at risk elements ie., 6 building types, 5 crop types and 2 infrastructure elements. The possible damages are arrived at based on the damaging wind speeds computed by the model by applying necessary correction factors like duration factor, terrain factor, gust factor etc. The outputs are then converted into maps by the decision support system. WHM is triggered as part of real-time system operated on 24 X 7 when the cyclonic wind speed is crossing 20m/sec. Running the Wind hazard model for 550(11X50) scenarios. The area considered for wind damage forecast includes all the mandals within 60 km from coast and delta portions. Vulnerability maps due to wind damages for intensities of T2.5 and T6.5 have been prepared by the Wind Hazard Model.

Mrs.Baddam Shyamala, AEE - APSDPS.

Flood Unit

The flood unit prepares rainfall maps and basin wise volume estimation for 40 sub basins of Andhra Pradesh and for Godavari and Krishna river catchments outside Andhra Pradesh. The unit prepares actual rainfall maps by the daily and volume estimation whenever heavy rainfall is reported in catchment areas during monsoon period by using AWS data and theisson polygon generation of AWS stations catchment wise. It also generates Rainfall maps for catchment areas outside AP during monsoon season based on TRMM rainfall data. Inundation maps for the rivers Godavari, Krishna and Pennar rivers have also been generated using input data and Modelling runs for different intensities.

The flood unit has implemented flood forecasting models for the nine coastal districts consisting of rainfall runoff model (UP), hydrodynamic model (Mike 11) & Mike11 GIS. The UP (Hydrological) model uses the latest rainfall data and rainfall forecast from rainfall model. Mike 11 (Hydrodynamic) uses fluvial flow forecasts inputs from the UP model and predicts the water levels along the stretch of the river. Mike11 GIS takes the output of mike11 models and topographic data to prepare inundation maps. The existing flood forecasting System, available for coastal districts of Andhra Pradesh is developed with coarse resolution data and this needs to be upgraded with finer scale data and extended to cover the upstream reaches of the state pertaining to Godavari, Krishna & Pennar rivers, so that flood forecasting can be done more efficiently and vulnerability maps can be generated at village level for different return period flows. Few of the flood forecasting models are.

Mr. Kethari Gopi ,DEE,APSDPS

Integrated Coastal Zone Management Unit

Integrated Coastal Zone Management (ICZM) is a dynamic process in which coordinated strategy is developed and implemented for the allocation of environmental, social, cultural and institutional resources to achieve the conservation and sustainable multiple use of the coastal resources. Sustainable development vis-à-vis the long-term reduction of coastal vulnerability to cyclone disasters has been considered as the primary trigger for ICZM Programme for Andhra Pradesh. The general ICZM objectives have been formulated as “optimum utilisation of coastal resources, minimisation of impacts due to cyclone disasters and improvements in equitable quality of life levels while ensuring environmental protection and biodiversity conservation.”

An Expert Decision Support System (EDSS-ICZM) has been developed as a tool for the evaluation of alternative development scenarios for mainstreaming ICZM planning process. It is a computer based system that links land use, socio-economy, resource and environmental management and cyclone vulnerability. Issues considered for ICZM study are land use, water resources, fisheries, forestry, nature conservation, socio-economy and village institutions, environmental quality: water, air and solid waste management and cyclone warning dissemination and preparedness.

The ICZM-EDSS based study at APSDPS is undertaken in three phases, viz., inception phase, where the input data is collected and compiled, Analysis phase, where various scenarios are analysed through EDSS and further Planning phase, where study reports and plans are proposed. Resource and Environment Management Plans (REMPs), containing advisories specific to relevant departments are being prepared for all the coastal districts for ICZM planning purpose. Further customization of EDSS model for land use planning and village-level planning is also being attempted.

Mrs.Baddam Shyamala ,AEE,APSDPS

Drought Unit

The team dealing with drought in the Disaster Mitigation unit of APSDPS in association with CRIDA has developed a software module to monitor drought conditions in the state. In its endeavor to monitor the Drought at mandal level, APSDPS has already installed around 1200 Automated Weather Stations covering one in each mandal. The drought monitoring software is run fortnightly to monitor the conditions of the drought in the state. Further NDVI analysis is being carried out by NRSC at state level to monitor agricultural drought in the state. APSDPS proposes to carry out this NDVI mandal wise analysis by taking the output in digital data from NRSC. To further enhance the understanding of Drought situation at micro level, APSDPS proposes to attempt analysis at mandal level using the observational data from Ground Water Department & Irrigation Department by collecting and analyzing ground water levels & water levels in Medium & Major reservoirs monthly. APSDPS is also installing 100 soil moisture sensors in the state of Andhra Pradesh with which soil moisture conditions of the state can also will be monitored based on the data from these sensors.

The drought team of APSDPS is proposing to initiate plotting of cumulative actual rainfall map daily during the monsoon period (i.e., from 1st June to 31st December) along with the corresponding cumulative normal rainfall map for the same period to calculate the deviation of actual with the normal and plotting the deviation. The Drought Monitoring software was run during the monsoon period and mandals under stress have been identified.

Mrs.Baddam Shyamala, AEE, APSDPS